Surya Thapaliya
The year 2016 started with a much promise of strengthening of federalism in Nepal. Nepal’s own forage into the unknown territory of cooperative federalism was not an easy walk in the park. Compounded with both complexities and aspirations, the long but steady journey towards fiscal federalism was more challenging. Tourism formed one of the major highlights of national economy. With foundation stones being laid of Pokhara and Bhairahawa International airports, the newly born federal state of Nepal was just abuzz with the promise of future. Tourism sector stared at new opportunities. 
The long journey to the first decade of federalism augured average for tourism with fluctuating growth in tourists’ arrival.  The number remains hovering around 1.2 million. Quite interestingly, the much hyped National Tourism Strategic Plan 2015-2024 sneaked under the carpet without any hullabaloo. The conundrum of either 1.6 million or 2.5 million still remains intriguing. While we ponder over what has been keeping us in a tight rope, here we can spare a moment to reflect on what Sri Lanka did during the crisis in 2023 to keep its tourism back in track. 
The constant jolt of political unrest from April 2022 to November 2022 kept Sri Lanka in a serious distress with an unprecedented challenge in tourism. The pearl island witnessed just over 700 thousand tourists, a sharp decline from pre covid time. Here onward, Sri Lanka turned new chapter to revive tourism. After a steady political shift by the end of 2022, Sri lanka jumped the bandwagon by adopting to strategies of attracting both Russian and Ukrainian tourists. Tourists from both nations found themselves in spot of bother in traveling around due to formal/informal sanctions. With nearly two hundred thousand Russian visitors in the year 2023 followed by 1,14,900 in the year 2024, Sri Lanka felt both buoyant and apprehensive of the trend. It did implement stringent visa regulation to curb overstaying Russians. Both year witnessed more Russian visitors to Sri Lanka than from the neighbor India. Russian do not make the cut separately in our arrival stats due to low arrival in Nepal. It was startling yet reaped dividend for Sri Lanka tourism. Unsurprisingly, Sri Lanka’s road to recovery was mainly due to the strong fleet and connectivity of Sri Lanka airlines. 
We take a look into the numbers presented from official source. A mathematical delving with cross year analysis gives a clear picture about the projected arrival of fifteen lakhs international visitors per year. If 2016 is taken as base year for arrival post federal set up, the year shows 7,53,002 international visitors arrived in Nepal. The same year has 35,10,742 international air passenger movement including Nepali passengers. It is one international visitor per 4.66 pax. It is 4.13 for 2017 and 3.45 for the year 2019 which is the highest arrival till date in Nepalese tourism history. If we leapfrog to 2022 it is 5.67 which is below par. It is 4.47 and 4.32 for the year 2023 and 2024 respectively. The average in the decade has been hovering at 4 and this is where the concern lies. With increasing number of Nepalese workforce in labor market and Nepalese diaspora ever increasing, the challenge is upfront to improve visitors against the Nepalese passenger ratio. 
The number game is always interesting but agonizingly planning intensive. If the same interval of analysis persists, we may need around 6.5 million of total international passenger movement to reach the 15 lakhs international arrival only, if any chance of that to happen in next five years, that’s by 2030. It makes the running of two other international airports an uncompromising imperative.  The total passenger movement of 49 lakhs in 2024 produces the 4.32 ratio. What is heartening is the TIA has produced the result on the back of single runway.  It shows the efficiency at the top level but the ever demanding private sector and the ballooning pressure on revenue from tourism sector keeps everything on tight rope. Its lot to be desired once the completion of upgrade of TIA enables it to handle 10 million passengers annually. Sri Lanka did reach 2 million visitors in 2024 but not to forget the Colombo airport has two runways to cater to the operating airlines. 
While we keep falling in the charm or tricks of numbers, tourism in federal set up is rather a complex and comprehensive subject or economic affairs per se. Provision in the constitution, seemingly interwined and intertwined, keeps the subnational governments at the behest of center in all terms. Fiscal federalism is yet to make easy inroads in national tourism frame. Uncannily low contribution of tourism in GDP is a matter of contest. Under the existing political economy model, as provisioned in the constitution, the observed tax assignment in a federation is the outcome of a bargaining between different levels of government to raise their respective share of taxing powers. The annexure outlined in the constitution of Nepal 2072 does not bestow leeway to subnational governments in international promotion of the destinations in ask. However, federal government dispensing funding has resulted in substantial progress with regard to fiscal equalization among provincial and local governments, these governments still suffer from a shortfall of conundrum of sustainable and self-sufficient tourism revenues for self-prioritized projects. 
The point of contest is motivated by the contexts of the fiscal disparity prevalent among the subnational governments, mainly the provinces, backed by discrepant tourism context and needs. The affluent regions with resources and endowments have received the thrust while other regions are counting on tourism to prosper. Moreover, there was no efficient distribution of fiscal resources throughout the country to support nationwide development efforts. The decade of fiscal federal arrangements have brought tourism sector under hyped and heightened deliberation for subjugating vertical, horizontal and spatial disparities among different geo-economic regions in the country.
The numbers do not necessarily present grim picture though. The jump in visitors’ arrival is 3,94,546 from 2016 to 2024. It is more than 52% growth. If we compare the arrival figure of the same span of years in Sri Lanka’s case, it’s almost the same number of 2 million with below 5% growth. The growth falls to nearly -28% in case of Bhutan for the same years of span in analysis. For the same period, India received 38% growth when compared the 2016 arrival with the arrival in 2024.  If these analysis is considered within the limits of prerequisites of strengthening of our own young federalism, Nepal’s tourism sector has performed better in head to head with regional competing destinations. Still the numbers keep us haunting. 1.5 million? Yes within reach. 2.5 million? Wow, will take some serious planning.

Mr. Thapaliya is a senior manager in Nepal Tourism Board